Indiana Antics

Before the two most recent polls were released in Indiana (Downs Center [4/16], LA Times/Bloomberg [4/14]) Clinton had a comfortable lead of 9.25 percent, on average. A significant shift occurred with the release of these two new polls each showing Obama positioned with a 5 percent advantage; a swing of nearly 15 percent in the span of just a week. How did Hillary manage to squander 15 percent in this crucial state? To answer this question the actions of each candidate during the previous week must be analyzed. In the prior week Barack Obama continued his campaign in Pennsylvania and at one point referred to voters as "bitter" in the face of economic hardship. He also stated that these same "bitter" voters have given up on voting for real issues but rather focus their attention on "guns and religion." At the same time Hillary Clinton toured Indiana seeking to appeal to whiskey drinkers and firearm fanatics while touting herself as the "in touch" candidate countering what the media described as Barack's "bitter" blunder. But the poll numbers don't lie and clearly illustrate that Clinton's rhetoric completely failed.

But perhaps Obama's rise in poll numbers can be attributed to something entirely different. Perhaps people actually do feel "bitter" when they lose their job for bureaucratic reasons. Perhaps his poll numbers increased among those who are in fact "bitter". Perhaps Clinton is out of touch with the real issues. Perhaps she realizes she cannot win on the issues and is instead seeking to appeal to the same demographic for which she derided Obama for referencing; the "guns and religion" vote. Perhaps all of these ifs are true, does Obama then have the nomination wrapped up? The polls appear to be paving the way in either case.

The Indiana primary takes place on May 6th, the same day as North Carolina and fourteen days after Pennsylvania. Indiana has 72 national pledged delegates.

Published on April 18th at 7:08 PM CT :: 0 Comments

Dem. Algorithm Update

The democratic nomination algorithm has been adjusted for the case where there is no poll data available within the last 8 days. Under the new rules the system will select the most recent poll for that state (regardless of age) and average it with the current national average. This change allows for unique results in each race that still reflects the will of the people while adjusting for the recent trends in public sentiment.

Published on April 15th at 6:08 PM CT :: 0 Comments

Preliminary Polling Algorithm

The current algorithm for the Democratic Nomination gathers all relevant polling data for the given race within the last 8 days. If there is no data available within the last 8 days, the national race is substituted in place of the selected race. The results of this query are averaged and extrapolated out to 100%; this means that if the poll shows that Candidate A has 47% and Candidate B has 40% the new results will show Candidate A receiving (47%)/(47% + 40%) = 54.02 percent and Candidate B receiving (40%)/(47% + 40%) = 45.98%. Next the percentage of each candidate is multiplied by the number of delegates in each race and the result shows the projected number of delegates each candidate will receive for a given race.

The algorithm for the General Election (not yet implemented) is slightly different. The system again gathers all relevant poll data for the given state within the last 15 days, but if there is no data available the result of the 2004 election are used in its place. The percentages are calculated in the same manner as the Democratic Nomination. Once these percentages are calculated the candidate with the highest percentage gets all the electoral votes for that state.

Published on April 10th at 8:56 PM CT :: 0 Comments

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