Poll Update (9/21)

The tide has definitely shifted in the Commonwealth of Virginia with four new polls, as New Jersey's data remained fairly stagnant over the last week:

2009 New Jersey GovernorNeighborhood Research (R)9/17/2009333730
2009 New Jersey GovernorPublic Policy Polling (D)9/14/2009354421
2009 Virginia GovernorWashington Post9/17/200947512
2009 Virginia GovernorResearch 2000, DailyKos (D)9/16/200943507
2009 Virginia GovernorRasmussen Reports9/16/200946486
2009 Virginia GovernorClarus Research Group9/14/2009374221

I really have nothing to say about New Jersey; Corzine (D) continues to trail having only lead in one partisan poll since February. Corzine has clearly solidified his base around 40, but Christie (R) has lost ground in the last month, likely due to the US Attorney's loan scandal. We really need more data to determine whether Christie's downside will continue.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election

Virginia's 2009 Gubernatorial election just got interesting. Three non-partisan pollsters showed the race within five points at some point during the last week. The election is basically neck and neck according to our projection:

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Election

The reason for McDonnell's (R) decline can almost certainly be traced to his 1989 thesis in which he stated that working women were "detrimental" to the family. Deeds' (D) effort to highlight this apparent weak point clearly paid dividends in the polls.

I took a look at the two polls that provided publicly available cross tabs, Rasmussen Reports and the Washington Post in an attempt to glean more information about Deeds' surge. The basic post-thesis hypothesis is that Deeds' performance should have increased in the female voting bloc; unfortunately neither poll provided any gender specific information, at any level.

More in a week.

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